How it works
Scenario planning starts with a decision that is actually on the table, such as whether to renew a lease, consolidate two sites or move from two to three office days. It sets a baseline from real attendance, occupancy and capacity data, then names the few uncertainties that would change the answer: headcount, attendance policy, demand on the busiest day and lease timing.
Each scenario varies those inputs and shows the result in the same terms: seats needed on the peak day, floors or buildings required, cost, and which teams would move. Keeping the output identical is what makes the options comparable side by side.
Scenario planning is different from forecasting. A forecast predicts one likely future; scenarios prepare a response to several. The chosen scenario then feeds stack planning, space planning and move management, and the set is re-run when conditions change, typically before each lease event or policy change.
Renew vs consolidate vs relocate: what each scenario changes
Compare every scenario in the same terms: seats needed on the peak day, floors, cost and which teams move.
| Scenario | What changes | What to model | Main risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renew as is | Nothing physical; the lease term and cost reset | Peak-day demand against current capacity over the new term | Locking in space the organization no longer needs |
| Renew smaller | Floors are released and teams restack into the rest | Which teams fit on the remaining floors on their peak days | Too little space if attendance rises |
| Consolidate | Sites or floors merge into fewer | Combined peak-day demand, team adjacency and move phases | Longer commutes for some and a crowded peak day |
| Relocate | The organization moves to a new building | Layout for observed demand, fit-out and move sequence | Move cost and paying rent on both buildings during the overlap |
| Expand | Space is added in the current building or nearby | Hiring forecasts against capacity, and lease timing | Taking space for headcount that does not arrive |
Steps in workplace scenario planning
- Name the decision and its deadline, such as a lease break date or a policy change.
- Build the baseline from several weeks of observed attendance and occupancy by team, floor and weekday.
- List the few inputs that would change the answer: headcount, attendance policy, peak-day demand and lease timing.
- Build a small number of scenarios, including doing nothing, and vary only those inputs.
- Express every scenario in the same terms: peak-day seats, floors, cost and the teams that move.
- Review them side by side with real estate, finance and HR, and agree the choice and what would make you revisit it.
- Turn the chosen scenario into a stack plan, a seat plan and a move schedule.
- Re-run the scenarios when an input changes, and before each lease event.
Examples
- A firm weighing a move from two to three office days models peak-day demand under each policy to see whether its current floors can absorb the change.
- A real estate team facing a lease break compares three paths: renew as is, renew one floor smaller, or consolidate into another building.
- After an acquisition, planners test whether the incoming teams fit into existing space or need a short-term lease.
Common mistakes
- Modeling only one scenario, which removes the comparison that gives the exercise its value.
- Using nominal headcount instead of observed attendance, which builds overcapacity in from the start.
- Planning to the average day; capacity breaks on the peak day.
- Treating the output as final; attendance and headcount keep moving, so the models go stale.
- Bringing finance and HR in only at the end, so a sound plan stalls in approval.
How Kadence helps
Kadence SpaceOps runs scenario planning on live attendance and occupancy data from WorkOps. Planners test changes in headcount or workplace policy, compare several scenarios side by side, and use guided workflows to restack a building, consolidate floors or find space for a team. The chosen scenario becomes a stack plan and seat-level plan that can be published to WorkOps.
Scenario planning · SpaceOps · Office space planning guide
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between scenario planning and forecasting?
Forecasting predicts one likely future. Scenario planning models several plausible futures, tests how each would play out and prepares a response to each. For workplace decisions, that means comparing paths such as renewing, downsizing or restacking before committing to one.
Why does scenario planning matter for real estate decisions?
Real estate decisions are hard to reverse. A lease locks in cost for years, and a restack moves people who will not want to move again soon. Scenario planning shows the space and cost impact of each option before the commitment, so the decision rests on evidence rather than one assumption about the future.
What data do you need for workplace scenario planning?
Attendance patterns by day, current capacity and occupancy by floor, headcount forecasts by team, and lease dates and costs. Observed attendance matters more than nominal seat counts, because it shows the demand each scenario actually has to meet.
Who is responsible for workplace scenario planning?
It usually spans corporate real estate, finance and the workplace or people team. The strongest processes give one owner accountability while pulling data and sign-off from all three.
How often should workplace scenarios be updated?
Re-run them whenever an input changes materially: a new attendance policy, a reorganization, a hiring plan or an approaching lease event. A regular review, for example each quarter, keeps the models close to reality between those events.
Related terms
- Stack planning A floor-by-floor plan of which teams occupy which floors and buildings, used to test moves and consolidations first.
- Headcount planning (for space) Forecasting how many people will work in each team and location, and turning that into the office space they will need.
- Lease event A lease date that forces or allows a decision, such as an expiry, a break option, a renewal option or a rent review.
- Office right-sizing Matching the amount and type of office space to how people actually use it, based on measured demand rather than headcount.
- AI space planning Using AI to draft and test stack plans, seating plans and scenarios from headcount, occupancy data and floor plans.
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